Is Vox's rise in Spain due to anti-immigration or other reasons?

Political observers in Spain have for some time thought that the next government will likely include the far-right Vox party.

Whether it be a coalition with the centre-right People's Party (PP) or some kind of informal parliamentary arrangement, if the polls are to be believed Vox will almost certainly play a role in the near future of Spanish politics.

The Local has already covered how the anti-immigration, anti-Islam party is stealing votes from the PP. This is unsurprising.

But now new polling data shows that the far-right party is, remarkably, stealing voters from the ruling Socialists (PSOE) too.

According to a poll by SIGMA DOS, leader Santiago Abascal's party would win around 300,000 Socialist votes if Spaniards went to the polls. This comes as Vox continues its upward trend and now enjoys an estimated 17.4 percent of the vote, a 5 percent improvement on its performance at the polls in July 2023.

For some in Spain, this is just further evidence that the Spanish left's time in office is coming to an end. Spanish daily El Mundo talks about 'the conservative shift among Spaniards' in the polls.

READ ALSO: Europe's shift to the right creates an 'unwelcoming environment' for all foreigners

Seat projections seem to suggest there's something to this. The PP and Vox would, according to polls, win a total of around 200 MPs out of the 350 in the Congress of Deputies. Since the return of Spanish democracy, there has never been such a strong showing for the Spanish right.

Vox has now firmly established itself as Spain's third party. Polls have for months or years now shown the ultra party to be way ahead of Sumar, Spain's far-left party and junior coalition member, which hovers between 5-7 percent.

This spectacular growth can be explained firstly by the loyalty of its core voter base – 83.2 percent say they would vote for Vox again – combined the exodus of PP voters, and, more recently, tempting away PSOE supporters.

This is a recent trend. In October, the shift from the PSOE to Vox was pretty negligible (0.5 percent, roughly 39,000 voters). In November it rose to 2.5 percent, and in December now represents 3.9 percent, which translates to around 270,000 former PSOE voters saying they would now opt for Vox.

So, what explains Vox's rise? Is it just pure anti-immigration sentiment in Spain or is there something more to it?

Immigration

Clearly, immigration has been a mainstay of Vox's politics for some time. It in part explains the party's rise and this is in keeping with a more recent rightward shift on immigration rhetoric across Europe.

However the party has in recent years stepped up its rhetoric, calling for the deportation of millions of immigrants and banning Islamic events in public spaces at a local level.

In July 2024, it gained even more momentum due to the transfer of migrant minors from the Canary Islands to the Spanish mainland, a controversial topic among Spaniards, which ended in Vox leaving the PP's regional coalition governments. Political analysts at the time interpreted this as a manoeuvre to show voters concerned about immigration that only Vox was offering a seriously anti-migration programme.

Put simply: immigration is a priority among Spanish voters and Vox presents the most radical answers. Its rise in the polls surely reflects the growing salience of migration as a voter issue.

READ ALSO: Disinformation catalyses anti-migrant unrest in Spain

Corruption

The ongoing collection of corruption cases and allegations against the PSOE government has also surely helped.

That the PSOE is engulfed by corruption investigations and the PP has ongoing historical cases to contend bolsters Vox's argument that Spain's two-party dominance doesn't serve Spaniards. It adds to the sense of Vox as a protest or anti-establishment party. 

“The government is a pool of corruption, a stinking swamp, a mafia group, a gang of criminals that only exists to enrich a small group of people and perpetuate their hold on power,” Abascal has said, something a lot of voters across the spectrum might agree with these days and certainly some easy political points to score.

READ ALSO: Spain's Vox mirrors UK far right with protests against migrant centres

Housing

Could housing also play a role? Though perhaps more instinctively a left-leaning issue, Vox has also capitalised on voter dissatisfaction with the government's response to the housing crisis. An inability to properly intervene in the housing market has been viewed by many, especially on the left, as a major failing of the Sánchez government.

Vox knows this, and has in recent months given a more prominent role to its Housing Spokesmen Carlos Hernández Quero, especially at public events clearly aimed at young voters who can't afford to rent, let alone get on the property ladder.

Of course, the property market also allows Vox to fuse two of their key arguments: that immigrants take housing from Spaniards. 

READ ALSO: Spain's Vox proposes taxing foreigners more to give housing benefits to locals

Protest/youth vote

There's also something to be said for Vox making inroads with younger voters.

That Spanish youngsters are increasingly backing the far-right party has helped to propel their rise in the polls. Vox has, among all other parties, managed to use social media effectively to bypass traditional media and speak to young Spaniards.

Vox support is particularly strong among men – 19.4 percent compared to 14.4 percent of women – and among young people. In fact, in the last month, Abascal's party has regained second place among respondents aged 18 to 29, at 23.3 percent of the time, more than those who support PSOE (21.5 percent) but less than those who opt for the PP (32 percent).

READ ALSO: Why do many young people in Spain think life was better under Franco?