The return of Donald Trump to the White House has had political implications far beyond Washington.
A new, more adversarial dynamic now dominates the US-EU relationship, with Trump slapping tariffs on the block but also threatening to withdraw American military presence and funding, or a significant proportion of it, at least, unless European countries bolster their defence spending.
Trump tried during his first term to reduce his deployment in Germany by 12,000 troops, for example, a decision that was reversed by the Biden administration.
More recent rhetoric coming out of Washington suggests Europe has been 'freeloading' for too long, and that the 'old continent' now needs to step up and secure (and pay for) its own defence.
Spain is one of the lowest NATO member states in terms of defence spending as a proportion of GDP, and the White House has also meddled in Spanish supply businesses by demanding they abandon diversity projects at the American embassy.
Since the beginning of Trump's second administration, he's also mistakenly referred to Spain as a BRICS nation whilst criticising the country's defence budget, and Spain's Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is arguably the European leader less aligned with Washington, being one of the few progressive voices on the continent in foreign policy terms.
READ ALSO: Is Spain's Nato defence spend really as low as Trump claims?
Sánchez’s recent visit to China was viewed by many as a strategic mistake, especially as the U.S. attempts to decrease its military presence in Europe in order to be able to pivot to the Pacific arena. The trip was described by some stateside as akin to “cutting your own throat”.
Hoping to repair some of the damage, Spain’s Minister of Economy and Trade, Carlos Cuerpo, was dispatched to Washington shortly after.
But Trump’s turn away from Europe, whether economically or military, forms part of a broader policy realignment. Now it seems that the major American military base in Spain, the Rota naval base in the Cádiz region of south-western Andalusia, could also possibly be in danger.
The Americans do have another base in Andalusia, Morón Air Force base, about 30km south of Seville, but it seems Rota would be the main victim of any shift away from Spain.
Rota has long been essential to the NATO alliance's missile defence shield, but Spanish press reports suggest it is at serious risk of being withdrawn by the United States along with 38 other bases across Europe.
The base was born from a 1953 pact between Dwight Eisenhower, then US president, and Francisco Franco, and is considered one of the most valuable to the US military on the continent.
READ ALSO: Where are the US military bases in Spain and why are they there?
Rota has an airfield, three docks and what the Pentagon calls “the largest weapons and fuel facilities in Europe.” Strategically and geographically speaking, it is key in maintaining and projecting military power in the Middle East, North Africa and, of course, the Mediterranean.
Its proximity to the Strait of Gibraltar makes it a highly valuable location for American troops to deploy at speed in any number of directions.
The Rota Naval Base is not only a strategic facility, however. It’s also an economic engine for the province of Cádiz more widely. According to official data, it generates around 9,500 direct and indirect jobs and contributes more than €250 million annually to the local economy.
A partial or total US withdrawal from Rota would be a serious blow to a region already suffering from high levels of unemployment.
Moreover, Spain would lose a key element in its defence policy and international status.
Pentagon sources reported in the Spanish press suggest that geopolitical pressure and the strategic shift towards the Indo-Pacific could lead to a total rethink of the military presence in Europe more widely, with Morocco mentioned as a possible alternative for relocating U.S. hardware and bases.
"In the eyes of the Trump administration, there would be far less risk in putting US military bases in Morocco than in Spain," said Michael Walsh, a former campaign official for Biden who became a critic of the former Democratic president's foreign policy.
Jim Townsend, former US deputy assistant secretary of defence for Europe, has said: "Anything could happen. There are lots and lots of things that could make Trump angry."
Spain's Defence Ministry recently told the Financial Times, however, that "as far as [US-Spain] relations and Rota are concerned, there have been no changes with the arrival of Trump."
READ ALSO: Europe's security is at a 'turning point', EU leader warns
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