'Records could be broken': Spain braces for very high spring temperatures

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'Records could be broken': Spain braces for very high spring temperatures
Tourists protect themselves of the sun as they are visiting the Royal Palace in Madrid. Photo: Thomas COEX/AFP.

Spain's national weather agency has warned that the country could see historically high temperatures this spring that may worsen already alarming drought conditions in some regions.


Spain's state meteorological agency Aemet has made its forecasts for spring, which officially begins on March 20th. The agency's prediction is one of record-breaking temperatures well above seasonal averages that could worsen the ongoing drought conditions in parts of the country.

Unseasonably warm periods are nothing new in Spain in recent years, of course. Temperatures during spring 2023 were well above average, and during winter the mercury was 1.9C above normal values for the time of year.

Aemet forecasts for the coming months of spring foresee similar conditions: "They are going to be very warm and could break records," the agency stated when presenting its forecasts to the Spanish media last week.

READ ALSO: Tenerife to call drought emergency as Spain struggles with water shortages

This is a particularly worrying prediction due to the ongoing drought conditions in many parts of Spain, and the worryingly low levels of water in reservoirs in regions such as Catalonia and Andalusia.


Aemet also highlighted the fact that in the last seven seasons in Spain (from summer 2022-winter 2023), four have broken temperature records. 

In January, temperatures rose to 29.5C in the eastern region of Valencia, 28.5C in Murcia in the southeast and 27.8C near Málaga in the south -- levels usually seen in June.

READ ALSO: Spain sees warmest January on record


That in mind, it seems almost certain that spring 2024 in Spain will also be something of a scorcher, with temperatures predicted to be above average values for the time of year. Cayetano Torres, coordinator of the Meteorological and Climatological Information Area at AEMET, said last week: "There is a very high probability, between 70 percent and 100 percent, that temperatures this coming quarter will be above average.”

In a post on Twitter/X, Aemet stated that: “The astronomical spring (April, May, June) is likely to be warmer than normal throughout Spain.”

Aemet forecasts also suggest that some parts of Spain should prepare for an abnormally dry period. This won't affect central peninsular regions so much, but the Mediterranean area, as well as the Canary Islands and Balearic Islands, "which will suffer the most."

However, forecasts with regards to rain levels overall aren't as clear. Aemet forecast models are inconclusive about how much rain spring might bring: "It is just as likely to be rainy as dry," says Torres.

In general terms, spring, which this year will last for 92 days (until 20 June) has an average temperature of 13.6C and an average rainfall of approximately 173 litres per m/2.

READ ALSO: No winter snow on Spain's Teide for first time in 108 years


Scorching summer

Longer to medium-term Aemet forecasts predict the abnormally warm spring season will lead straight into a summer of above average temperatures.

Forecasts indicate that, again, as in 2023, summer 2024 in Spain will be a scorcher. Torres predicts that the summer has a 70-100 percent probability of being "warmer than normal."

"There is a 40-50 percent chance that it will be a dry summer," he adds, conceding that "summers in Spain are usually dry, so this data is not very significant."


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