Can Spain's frail government survive the amnesty law defeat?

The Spanish government suffered a significant defeat in the Congress of Deputies on Tuesday after its highly controversial amnesty law, which proposes a legal amnesty for Catalan separatists involved in the failed 2017 independence bid, failed to pass.

Junts per Catalunya, a Catalan separatist party for whom the law is essentially designed, failed to back the government, claiming the legislation did not go far enough.

The government has reacted angrily. Felix Bolaños, a government Minister and lead negotiator for the amnesty deal, went so far as to say that Junts had "voted with the PP and Vox, who want to imprison them," emphasising the absurdity of Junts voting against a law in its interest: "It is incomprehensible that Junts has voted against a law that they have agreed to."

READ ALSO: Spain's MPs reject Catalan amnesty bill in blow for PM

But Junts spokesperson Miriam Nogueras said of the bill: "This text is a good starting point.. but it has holes that Spain's prejudiced justice system can use to leave the amnesty in tatters."

The bill was the subject of much speculation and negotiation until the very last minute, with Junts demanding further concessions in exchange for its support, but ultimately only received 171 votes in favour and 179 against, including those of the seven deputies from Junts.

It will now return to Congress' Justice Committee for revisions and, although Junts hope that further amendments will be made, including expanding the scope of the law to include amnesties for those accused of terrorism and high treason, the Socialist-led (PSOE) government have ruled it out. Sources close to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez told Spanish press agency EFE that "they are not going to change their position on the amnesty law."

The coalition that Sánchez managed to cobble together to cling onto power last summer, which hinged on the amnesty deal, depends on the votes of Junts deputies. Without them, it becomes very difficult for the government to pass it or any legislation. The government's first big vote of the legislature, of the so-called 'omnibus bill', was almost derailed by similar political horse trading weeks ago.

READ ALSO: Frailty of Spain's govt on show as Catalan separatists set to block new laws

Leader of Spain's opposition party Partido Popular, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, gave a brutal assessment of Sánchez's predicament, painting him as hostage to separatist forces: "Sánchez has decided to be a hostage... [but] the ransom will not be paid by Spaniards."

The government defeat certainly highlights the frailty of its position and dependence on Catalan separatists in order to govern. For many political observers, the rejection of the amnesty law undermines the government, threatens its legislative potency, and could even signal the beginning of the end for the Sánchez.

But how true is this? Is this political hyperbole, as is so often the case in Spanish political punditry? What happens next? And with the government potentially unable to pass legislation, how likely are further elections?

Is the government under threat?

Following the defeat, the government made clear that the legislature is not at risk, as critics suggest. Bolaños said after the vote that the current legislature is not under threat: "We have three and a half years left and we are going to continue to support rights, employment and coexistence".

Government sources assured Spanish press agency EFE that "the legislature lasts as long as the president of the government decides".

Despite this, sources also confirmed that, if necessary "the general state budget will be extended". This would be the ninth budget extension in Spanish democracy, having previously been extended in 1979, 1983, 1996, 2012, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. Following the inflated influence of Junts deputies on the government's first two major legislative votes of the year, however, it is not a move that smacks of political authority.

What comes next?

The amnesty text will now be sent back to Congress' Justice Committee, where new amendments will be drawn up and debated again among the parliamentary groups for 15 days. The body has a maximum period of one month to do this.

At the political level, the government will enter into yet more negotiations with Junts in order to try and convince its seven deputies to vote with the government and pass the law. Junts will undoubtedly expect concessions in return, but government sources seem firm that it will not expand the amnesty.

Feijóo has said that he expects the government will cave under pressure: "The amnesty will continue and will go further than anyone suspected. It began as corruption, now it welcomes terrorism and, who knows, soon it will be high treason."

However, an alternative interpretation of the failed amnesty vote is that Sánchez and the government decided to assume the cost of the defeat, however embarrassing, in order to maintain their red lines and signal to Junts (and crucially, the Spanish people) that it will not simply give in to any demand from Junts.

READ ALSO: Spain's amnesty dilemma - the 'end of democracy' or logical next step?

Whatever happens, the next few weeks seem set for a political standoff between the PSOE and Junts teams.

More elections?

If no agreement is made, the government can't pass its amnesty law and is therefore unable to effectively govern, what happens next?

Will Spaniards be forced back to the polls yet again, for the sixth time in a decade? Not imminently, anyway.

Article 115 of the Spanish Constitution states that Congress cannot be dissolved in order to call elections before one year has passed since the last dissolution. In this case, the last dissolution was on 29th May 2023, the day after the local and regional elections when Sánchez shocked the country with a snap general election.

As such, the Prime Minister cannot call new elections until 29th May of this year at the earliest.

With no deal, this likely means that Sánchez will be massively politically weakened, and the government stuck in deadlock, unable to pass legislation.

However, following the letter of the law, Sánchez will be Prime Minister until he dissolves parliament and calls an election, something he is not obliged to do.