Spain's 2.3 million voters overseas could break election deadlock
The votes of up to 2.3 million Spaniards who live overseas are yet to be counted, which could give crucial seats to either the right or the left after Sunday’s nail-biting election in which neither side earned an absolute majority with which to govern.
Although Alberto Nunez Feijóo's right-wing Popular Party (PP) won the vote, it fell short of a governing majority, handing Sánchez's Socialists a lifeline as they have more options to create alliances with smaller parties.
As things stand, the PP has 136 of the 350 seats in parliament, so it's short of the 176 needed to govern, and even with the support of Vox's 33 mandates, it can only reach 169.
The Socialists are second with 122 seats and its radical-left ally Sumar have 31, giving them a total of 153, but the support of nationalist regional parties (notably Catalan and Basque separatist ones) could just about ensure Sánchez's bloc gets a majority.
READ MORE: Spain's election gridlock - What happens next?
However, the votes of Spanish citizens who live overseas and mailed in their ballots have not yet been counted, with this recount set to take place between Friday July 28th and Monday August 1st.
The CERA vote (Electoral Census of Absent Residents) is made up of up to 2,328,261 voters, 200,000 more than for the previous general election in 2019.
Who these Spaniards living abroad vote for could tip the balance in places where there are very narrow margins between PSOE and PP votes, and where ministers of parliament have not yet been assigned their seat.
In Madrid for example, which has 378,000 registered voters outside of Spain, the PP is 1,749 votes away from snatching a seat from the PSOE.
It’s a similar situation in Girona in Catalonia, where if the PP obtains just 363 more votes than Catalan nationalist party Junts in the overseas vote recount, the centre-right party would also claim another MP.
Other last-minute battles between different parties are playing out in Cantabria, Albacete, Tarragona, Seville, Málaga, Barcelona, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria and Gipuzkoa.
Spain’s vote is therefore not over, adding to the sense of shifting sands as the left and the right scramble to make coalitions and agreements in return for alliances.
Spain’s electoral system doesn’t involve voters directly voting for the Prime Minister they want, but rather voting for their preferred ministers of parliament. If they then have an absolute majority, they can choose Spain’s Prime Minister.
Currently, with the support of Sumar, ERC, EH Bildu, PNV and BNG, Sánchez has 172 seats, four away from an absolute majority.
On the flipside, 171 MPs belonging to PP, VOX, UPN and CC will not support Sánchez’s investiture.
The outcome of the overseas vote recount in places like Madrid or Girona could therefore result in Sánchez losing that slight advantage he has over Feijóo, if the PP earns those last few remaining seats that are still at stake.
If that were to happen, the crucial alliance the PSOE is seeking with Junts - a party which has openly said it wants a Catalan independence referendum and amnesty for its leaders in return - would not decide the election and who Spain’s next prime minister will be.
READ MORE: Fugitive Catalan leader could determine who governs in Spain
Comments
See Also
Although Alberto Nunez Feijóo's right-wing Popular Party (PP) won the vote, it fell short of a governing majority, handing Sánchez's Socialists a lifeline as they have more options to create alliances with smaller parties.
As things stand, the PP has 136 of the 350 seats in parliament, so it's short of the 176 needed to govern, and even with the support of Vox's 33 mandates, it can only reach 169.
The Socialists are second with 122 seats and its radical-left ally Sumar have 31, giving them a total of 153, but the support of nationalist regional parties (notably Catalan and Basque separatist ones) could just about ensure Sánchez's bloc gets a majority.
READ MORE: Spain's election gridlock - What happens next?
However, the votes of Spanish citizens who live overseas and mailed in their ballots have not yet been counted, with this recount set to take place between Friday July 28th and Monday August 1st.
The CERA vote (Electoral Census of Absent Residents) is made up of up to 2,328,261 voters, 200,000 more than for the previous general election in 2019.
Who these Spaniards living abroad vote for could tip the balance in places where there are very narrow margins between PSOE and PP votes, and where ministers of parliament have not yet been assigned their seat.
In Madrid for example, which has 378,000 registered voters outside of Spain, the PP is 1,749 votes away from snatching a seat from the PSOE.
It’s a similar situation in Girona in Catalonia, where if the PP obtains just 363 more votes than Catalan nationalist party Junts in the overseas vote recount, the centre-right party would also claim another MP.
Other last-minute battles between different parties are playing out in Cantabria, Albacete, Tarragona, Seville, Málaga, Barcelona, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria and Gipuzkoa.
Spain’s vote is therefore not over, adding to the sense of shifting sands as the left and the right scramble to make coalitions and agreements in return for alliances.
Spain’s electoral system doesn’t involve voters directly voting for the Prime Minister they want, but rather voting for their preferred ministers of parliament. If they then have an absolute majority, they can choose Spain’s Prime Minister.
Currently, with the support of Sumar, ERC, EH Bildu, PNV and BNG, Sánchez has 172 seats, four away from an absolute majority.
On the flipside, 171 MPs belonging to PP, VOX, UPN and CC will not support Sánchez’s investiture.
The outcome of the overseas vote recount in places like Madrid or Girona could therefore result in Sánchez losing that slight advantage he has over Feijóo, if the PP earns those last few remaining seats that are still at stake.
If that were to happen, the crucial alliance the PSOE is seeking with Junts - a party which has openly said it wants a Catalan independence referendum and amnesty for its leaders in return - would not decide the election and who Spain’s next prime minister will be.
READ MORE: Fugitive Catalan leader could determine who governs in Spain
Join the conversation in our comments section below. Share your own views and experience and if you have a question or suggestion for our journalists then email us at [email protected].
Please keep comments civil, constructive and on topic – and make sure to read our terms of use before getting involved.
Please log in here to leave a comment.