TIMELINE: 8 years of chronic political instability in Spain

Dec 2015: two-party era ends

Since the early 1980s, power in Spain had alternated between the Socialists and the conservative Popular Party (PP).

But that ended with the December 2015 election when two new parties, the centre-right Ciudadanos and far-left Podemos, entered parliament for the first time.

Mariano Rajoy's PP won the most seats but fell short of a working majority in the 350-seat parliament and wasn't able to cobble together a governing coalition.

The PP gained ground in fresh elections held in June 2016 but still fell short of a working majority.

December 21st (2015) front covers, with El Periódico's headline reading "General Mess". AFP PHOTO/ JOSEP LAGO (Photo by JOSEP LAGO / AFP)

 

Oct 2016: Rajoy sworn in for 2nd term

Rajoy was finally sworn in for a second term as prime minister on October 29th 2016 - ending a 10-month period without a government -- because Ciudadanos backed him in a confidence vote and the Socialists abstained.

Weeks earlier, the Socialists ousted Sánchez as leader who had steadfastly refused to back Rajoy's attempts to form a government.

Popular Party politicians applaud Spanish interim Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (bottom R) after being re-elected during the parliamentary investiture vote for a prime minister. (Photo by JAVIER SORIANO / AFP)

 

June 2018: Sánchez ousts Rajoy

In May 2017, Sánchez made a stunning political comeback by winning the Socialist Party primaries.

A year later, he became prime minister after ousting Rajoy in a no-confidence vote on June 1st 2018 that had the backing of Podemos, two Catalan separatist parties and a Basque nationalist party.

It was the first time in Spain's modern democratic history that a premier was unseated by a parliamentary revolt.

Sánchez instigated the motion after the PP was found guilty of benefiting from illegal funds in a massive graft trial.

Sánchez shakes hands with Spain's outgoing Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (R) after a vote on a no-confidence motion at the Lower House of the Spanish Parliament in Madrid on June 01, 2018. (Photo by PIERRE-PHILIPPE MARCOU / POOL / AFP)

 

Feb 2019: budget crisis and new vote

Sánchez's minority government submitted a left-leaning budget together with Podemos that boosted social spending, but talks with the Catalan separatist parties collapsed after they demanded the right to a legally-binding independence referendum.

Sánchez refused and without their votes, the budget was rejected on February 13th, prompting him to call an early election on April 28th.

Although the Socialists won, they only secured 123 seats, forcing Sánchez to form new alliances to rule.

Right-wing protesters hold a sign with a picture of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez calling for elections and reading "Liar, impostor" during a demonstration in Madrid against the premier on February 10, 2019. (Photo by OSCAR DEL POZO / AFP)

 

Sept 2019: No support and fresh election

Talks with Podemos collapsed after four months and the PP and Ciudadanos refused to help Sánchez form a minority government by abstaining in a confidence vote, prompting fresh elections on November 10.

Although weakened, the Socialists won and pieced together a minority coalition with Podemos and the support of Basque and Catalan separatists in deals that would taint Sánchez's time in office.

Since then, the centre-right Ciudadanos has disappeared from the political landscape and Podemos has been absorbed into the new radical leftist Sumar alliance.

Following the left's rout in local elections on May 28th, Sánchez called a July 23 snap poll to catch the PP and the far-right Vox off guard as they were negotiating deals to jointly govern in various towns, villages and regions.

Spanish caretaker prime minister and candidate for re-election, Socialist Pedro Sánchez (R) and the leader of far left Podemos party, Pablo Iglesias, hug each other during the presentation of their coalition government agreement at the Congress in Madrid on December 30th 2019. (Photo by GABRIEL BOUYS / AFP)

 

July 2023: an unexpected outcome

Heading into Sunday's vote a right-win victory that would usher in a PP-Vox government was widely expected. However, the voters defied analysts' expectations, leaving Sánchez with a slim chance to hold onto power.

As in 2015, the PP won but failed to secure an absolute majority, even with Vox, its sole ally, with the right-wing bloc counting 169 seats, short of the 176 for a governing majority.

PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo could seek to form a minority government but would need the Socialists to abstain during an investiture vote - which they have no intention of doing.

With their 153 seats, the Socialists and Sumar would need support from several regional formations but would also require the abstention of the hardline Catalan separatist JxCat, which wants an independence referendum - a red line for Sánchez.

Otherwise, Spain could once again be forced to call a new election.